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【drug-news】为什么大药厂有麻烦?
If you are an editor of a newspaper or magazine, you are going to be looking for stories with some shock value. the more sensational the better at a time when readership is being lost to the internet.
A story on patent expirations for major pharmas wouldn't be very exciting if the story also mentioned that the companies would make up for the lost revenues naturally with things like annual drug price hikes, new products, acquisitions, ramp-ups of existing drugs, population growth, more business from the BRIC countries, inlicensing agreements, etc.
So they rarely mention these things and concentrate only on the loss side of the equation. Because people are busy and they also are lemmings, they fall right in with the articles. If an article says that the company will lose 40% of existing revenues to patent expirations in the next five years, few even think of how these revenues will be restored through additive factors such as what I mentioned above.
Many analysts have Pfizer dead and buried in 2012 after Lipitor has been lost. Many just write the company off and don't even think of where the company will be with respect to revenues and earnings after Lipitor is lost.
Where they will be though is about where they will be in 2009 - but with a huge difference. Post-Lipitor, growth will be infinitely greater because of the paucity of patent expirations. Without the drag of big patent losses, the additive factors just swamp the small losses and earnings grow apace - especially with a regular stock-buyback program like Pfizer has which reduces the share count by 3 or 4% each year.
The most important thing a Pfizer investor can do to educate himself is to go to page #6 of the company's 10-K report for 2006. He will see the listing of major drugs expiring. Look at what's expiring up to 2012 which is why earnings growth is subdued. And then look at the period 2013-2017. There is just ONE blockbuster expiring in that entire five-year period - $2.0B drug Celebrex in December 2014. That unbelievably-favorable patent schedule means big growth year after year post-Lipitor. That warrants at least a mid-teens multiple of the $2.50 or so in earnings that will be seen in 2012. You do the math.
Expiration Year
Norvasc 2007
Zyrtec 2007
Camptosar 2008
Aricept 2010
Lipitor 2010
Xalatan 2011
Viagra 2012
Detrol 2012
Celebrex 2014
Chantix 2018
Lyrica 2018
Sutent 2021
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作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2011-04-18 10:21
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