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【medical-news】东南亚国家出现流感大流行的防对
Author: Ferguson, NM; Cummings, DAT; Cauchemez, S, et al.
Source: NATURE Volume: 437 Issue: 7056 Pages: 209-214 Published: SEP 8 2005
Times Cited: 231
Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed. 本人已认领该文翻译，48小时后若未提交译文，请其他战友自由认领 . 本人已认领该文编译，48小时后若未提交译文，请其他战友自由认领。
响应胭脂版主号召。
非常抱歉，没有看到战友的前贴。刚刚才发现。抱歉！我已经将帖子加分，请战友继续翻译，待你的翻译完成后，我再公布我的。 Title: Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
东南亚国家出现流感大流行的防对策略
Author : Ferguson, NM; Cummings, DAT; Cauchemez, S, et al.
Source: NATURE Volume: 437 Issue: 7056 Pages: 209-214 Published: SEP 8 2005
Times Cited: 231
Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate. Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority. Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. We show that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8. We predict that a stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs should be sufficient for elimination. Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed.
现在，高致病性H5N1型流感病毒A是东南亚国家鸟类的常见病了，人类病例也在不断上升。尽管人与人之间的传播尚未能够证实，但是，考虑到变异或再分类 Title: Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia 东南亚地区流感暴发流行的防对策略
Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses are now endemic in avian populations in Southeast Asia, and human cases continue to accumulate.
强致病性的H5N1流感A病毒目前在东南亚地区禽类中肆略，人类感染例数也在不断上升。
Although currently incapable of sustained human-to-human transmission, H5N1 represents a serious pandemic threat owing to the risk of a mutation or reassortment generating a virus with increased transmissibility. Identifying public health interventions that might be able to halt a pandemic in its earliest stages is therefore a priority.
尽管目前不能通过人-人传播，随着传播性增加，H5N1病毒通过突变或再分化，仍有大规模爆发的威胁。因此首先要做的是建立将其遏制在初期阶段的公共卫生干预体系.
Here we use a simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia to evaluate the potential effectiveness of targeted mass prophylactic use of antiviral drugs as a containment strategy. Other interventions aimed at reducing population contact rates are also examined as reinforcements to an antiviral-based containment policy. 这篇文章利用东南亚地区流感病毒流行传播情况的数学模型,评估预防性使用抗病毒药物的可能价值。同时也检验了减少人群接触的干涉措施对抗病毒药物疗效的辅助加强作用。
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作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2011-06-10 05:11
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