主页 > 医学讨论 >
【drug-news】Prasugrel 意外失落还是惊喜?
Matthew Herper, 11.29.07, 11:30 AM ET
Cardiologists in the trenches may be far more eager to prescribe Eli Lilly's anti-clot drug prasugrel than statements by academic doctors would suggest, according to a new survey commissioned by the investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston.
Analyst Catherine J. Arnold, who has been bullish on Lilly shares, commissioned a survey of 85 interventional and clinical cardiologists from ImPactRx, which collects prescribing data for drug companies. The doctors surveyed treat a lot of patients and prescribe a lot of pills.
Arnold writes in a note to investors that doctors were more likely than she expected to use prasugrel in patients undergoing angioplasty, a procedure in which a balloon is used to open a clogged heart artery. According to the survey, 36% of those patients who undergo angioplasty would get the drug.
This is the population in which a big trial showed prasugrel prevented more heart attacks but also caused more dangerous bleeding than its rival, Plavix, from Sanofi-Aventis (nyse: SNY - news - people ) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (nyse: BMY - news - people ).
(For my look at why these results could mean sales will be small, see "Doing The Math On Lilly.")
In a result Arnold calls "more surprising," these doctors would extrapolate to patients who don't undergo angioplasty. A quarter of those who present to the hospital with chest pain or heart attacks would get prasugrel instead of Plavix. Whether or not these patients get prasugrel at all, given the bleeding risk, is probably the big determining factor of its eventual sales.
Arnold is still lowering her 2011 estimate for prasugrel sales to $1.02 billion from $1.12 billion. But that's still better than she thought: "Our previous take on the drug's bleeding rates was less positive than our survey results and so these negative forecast changes are less than we had expected," Arnold writes.
But Arnold expects the sales of prasugrel could hit $2.7 billion in 2015, making up for a spate of big patent expirations around that time.
Prasugrel still has to go through the FDA approval process, and a lot could change for worse or better as the FDA and its advisers look at the data surrounding the drug. This is only one survey, and by itself it isn't a reason to be sure prasugrel won't be stuck as a tiny, niche product for years. But it does provide a hint that some doctors may be more willing to prescribe the drug than it seemed on Nov. 4, when the data were released. 本人已认领该文编译，48小时后若未提交译文，请其他战友自由认领 。 福布斯载文分析
Eli Lilly Prasugrel Surprise
Matthew Herper, 11.29.07, 11:30 AM ET
礼来产品Prasugrel的惊喜
Matthew Herper， 11.29.07 ， 11:30上午
Cardiologists in the trenches may be far more eager to prescribe Eli Lilly's anti-clot drug prasugrel than statements by academic doctors would suggest, according to a new survey commissioned by the investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston.
根据由波士顿第一投资银行所作的一项新的民意调查结果显示临床心脏病专家可能比提出建议的医生协会更希望礼来的抗血凝药物Prasugrel成为处方药物。
Analyst Catherine J. Arnold, who has been bullish on Lilly shares, commissioned a survey of 85 interventional and clinical cardiologists from ImPactRx, which collects prescribing data for drug companies. The doctors surveyed treat a lot of patients and prescribe a lot of pills.
一直看好礼来股票的分析家Catherine J. Arnold，受委托调查来自ImPactRx的85名介入和临床心脏病学家，他们为制药公司搜集处方数据。接受调查的医生已经治疗很多病人和开具很多这种药物的处方。
Arnold writes in a note to investors that doctors were more likely than she expected to use prasugrel in patients undergoing angioplasty, a procedure in which a balloon is used to open a clogged heart artery. According to the survey, 36% of those patients who undergo angioplasty would get the drug.
Arnold在写给投资者的一张便条中说，医生们更有可能比她预期的在行血管成形术的患者中使用prasugrel，即用一个气囊打开一个堵塞的心脏动脉的手术。根据此项调查，36 ％接受血管成形术的患者将得到该药物。
This is the population in which a big trial showed prasugrel prevented more heart attacks but also caused more dangerous bleeding than its rival, Plavix, from Sanofi-Aventis (nyse: SNY - news - people ) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (nyse: BMY - news - people ).
在这组病人资料中进行的一个很大的试验数据表明prasugrel防止了更多的心脏病发作，而且比其竞争对手更易导致更危险的出血，这些竞争对手包括氯吡格雷，该药物来自Sanofi-Aventis（纽约证券交易所： SNY - news - people）和Bristol-Myers Squibb（纽约证券交易所代码：BMY - news - people） 。
(For my look at why these results could mean sales will be small, see "Doing The Math On Lilly.")
阅读本文的人还阅读：
作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2011-10-19 17:52
医学,生命科学网