主页 > 医药科学 >
【文摘发布】[Plos One]根据流感发病率预测肺炎和
题目：Predicting pneumonia and influenza mortality from morbidity data.
作者：Denoeud L, Turbelin C, Ansart S, Valleron AJ, Flahault A, Carrat F.
摘要：BACKGROUND: Few European countries conduct reactive surveillance of influenza mortality, whereas most monitor morbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant types/subtypes of circulating viruses. Epidemics were classified in three levels of mortality burden ("high", "moderate" and "low"). The model was fitted on 14 influenza seasons and was validated on six subsequent influenza seasons. Five out of the six seasons in the validation set were correctly classified. The average absolute difference between observed and predicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality) and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method described here can be used to estimate the influenza mortality burden in countries where specific pneumonia and influenza mortality surveillance data are not available.
PMID: 17520023 本人已认领该文编译，48小时后若未提交译文，请其他战友自由认领。 [标签:content1][标签:content2]
阅读本文的人还阅读：
作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2011-02-28 17:11
医学,生命科学网