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【bio-news】研究称，人类为吸烟导致的相关疾病付
Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:18am ET
By Stephanie Nebehay
GENEVA (Reuters) - Tobacco-related diseases including cancers and heart disease will kill 6.4 million people a year by 2015, 50 percent more than AIDS, a study said on Tuesday.
But the HIV/AIDS epidemic will be the leading cause of illness and disability in low- and middle-income countries by then and take an increasing number of lives worldwide, it said.
The study by World Health Organization (WHO) researchers projects global figures for mortality and the burden of 10 major disease groups in both 2015 and 2030.
"According to our baseline projection, smoking will kill 50 percent more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS and will be responsible for 10 percent of all deaths globally," said their study in the Public Library of Science Medicine (PLoS Medicine).
By 2030, more people will survive childhood diseases and live longer, but the proportion dying from chronic diseases like cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes will rise to 70 percent, according to the study.
With the notable exception of AIDS, global deaths from the main infectious diseases including malaria, tuberculosis and respiratory infections are on track to decline by then, it said.
"The epidemiological transition to chronic diseases is in progress in developing countries now so problems of cardiovascular disease and cancers are not just problems of high-income countries anymore," Colin Mathers, one of the report's authors, told Reuters.
The authors, whose study updates the first such long-term projection issued in 1996, found it had "substantially underestimated" the spread of AIDS and deaths from the epidemic.
AIDS BURDEN
AIDS, which currently kills an estimated 2.9 million people a year, is on track to take some 4.3 million lives in 2015, climbing to 6.5 million in 2030, according to the latest study.
"Under (our) baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015," it said, noting this was based on antiretroviral drugs reaching 80 percent of those in need by 2012.
UNAIDS says just 24 percent of the 6.8 million AIDS patients in need now receive the life-extending drugs, and those in poor countries are often denied access to treatment due to cost.
Tobacco, currently blamed for some 5.4 million deaths a year, is set to kill 6.5 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030, with the biggest rise in low-and middle-income countries.
Deaths attributable to tobacco are projected to double to 6.8 million in low-and middle-income countries in 2030. However, they will decline by 9 percent between now and then in rich countries, which will account for the remaining 1.5 million.
The WHO has accused cigarette makers of targeting youth in poorer countries as their markets shrink in the Western world.
By 2030, the three leading causes of illness and disability will be HIV/AIDS, followed by depression and ischemic heart disease, according to the study's baseline scenario.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2006-11-28T160503Z_01_L23317943_RTRUKOC_0_US-STUDY.xml&WTmodLoc=HealthNewsHome_C2_healthNews-6 本人已认领该文编译，48小时后若未提交译文，请其他战友自由认领。 为吸烟相关的疾病付出的高昂代价：研究
2006年11月28日上午8:18 星期二 ET
作者Stephanie Nebehay
日内瓦（路透社）：星期二一项研究指出，在2015年之前，吸烟相关疾病包括癌症和心脏病将导致每年640万人死亡，超过艾滋病50％。
但在中低等收入国家，2015年之后HIV/AIDS流行病将成为引起疾病和残疾的主要的因素，发病人数在世界范围内不断增加。
世界卫生组织的这项研究预测了2015和2030年10种主要疾病全球死亡率以及其花费负担。
他们在科学医学公共图书馆（PLoS医学）的研究声称：“根据我们的基线投射，在2015年吸烟将比HIV/AIDS导致的死亡人数高50％，而且吸烟将导致全球所有死亡的10％。”
根据这项研究，在2030年之前，更多的人在儿童疾病中幸存下来从而寿命延长，但是慢性疾病例如癌症、心血管疾病和糖尿病导致死亡所占比例将升至70％。
此后，主要传染性疾病包括疟疾、结核和呼吸系统感染导致的死亡在全球范围逐渐减少，明显例外的是艾滋病。
研究报告的一个作者Colin Mathers对路透社说：“现在在发展中国家，流行病学上逐渐向慢性疾病转变，心血管疾病问题和癌症已经不仅仅是高收入国家的问题了。”
在1996年发表的研究首先更新了长期投射，其作者发现艾滋病的传播和传染病所致的死亡“实质上被低估”。
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作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2010-09-25 05:11
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