主页 > 医药生命 >
【技术产业】Gilead的2008年大运
BY MARILYN MUCH
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 1/22/2008
For other companies, watch the New America Report.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) heads into the new year with a strong tail wind, propelled by promising new products and a growing franchise in drugs to treat HIV.
The biotech company has racked up a strong track record over the past few years, gaining traction with its lineup of HIV products.
Analysts expect another good year for the company, but foresee a minor hiccup when earnings are reported after the close Wednesday.
Gilead is also building momentum on other fronts. Recently, Gilead enhanced its prospects by branching out in a new direction.
Last June, it launched Letairis in the U.S.
Letairis is a treatment for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension, or PAH. PAH is a debilitating disease characterized by constriction of the blood vessels in the lungs, leading to high blood pressure in the pulmonary artery.
Cash Generator
Letairis should be a meaningful contributor in 2008, says analyst Jason Kantor of RBC Capital Markets. He sees the drug generating $155 million in sales this year.
"I would say Gilead is one of the best-positioned large-cap biotech companies," said Kantor. "It has increasing market share in the growing HIV market, its long-term growth prospects are enhanced by a focus on the chronic disease markets, and its management team is one of the best."
Executives weren't available for comment. Watchers say Gilead should continue to benefit from its strong HIV franchise, which provides an estimated 85% of Gilead's product sales.
The firm's lineup also includes products to treat hepatitis, influenza and fungal infections.
Gilead stands to get a boost from this year's launch of Atripla in Europe.
Atripla is a once-daily, single-tablet HIV treatment that combines three anti-HIV drugs. It was jointly developed by Gilead, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Merck. (MRK)
Atripla was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2006 and has since become the most prescribed treatment regimen for patients starting HIV therapy in the U.S.
"Going forward, the performance of Atripla in the EU will be a key driver," said analyst Jason Zhang of BMO Capital Markets. "Atripla has done so well in the U.S., I think it will be a mirror image in the EU."
Followers expect Gilead to benefit from its HIV drug franchise as well as its lineup of other products when it reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday.
"I expect a fairly in-line quarter for them," said analyst Kantor. "I don't expect any major surprises. The strength in the quarter could come from ex-U.S. sales, which benefit from strength in the European Union."
Kantor says the company is also seeing solid growth trends in its U.S. business, based on results from a third-party prescription tracking service that Kantor follows.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect fourth-quarter revenue to climb 21% to $1.087 billion.
They see earnings rising 3% to 40 cents a share. That represents a slowdown from Gilead's lofty growth the past several quarters. In the third quarter, earnings rose 31% to 42 cents a share. Sales grew 41% to $1.058 billion.
The slowdown in fourth-quarter earnings growth is tied to higher operating expenses vs. a year ago, says analyst Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Included in expenses, says Khorsand, is a one-time $20 million upfront licensing fee paid to LG Life Sciences related to an agreement during the quarter.
He says Wall Street is debating how much in expenses for sales, marketing, and research and development Gilead incurred during the quarter.
"I think it was a good quarter for them," Khorsand said.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect full-year 2007 earnings to rise 32% to $1.66 a share, then 13% in 2008 and 15% in 2009.
Kantor expects 2008 revenue to climb 40% to $5.09 billion.
Watchers say Gilead should get a boost from two drugs pending approval.
One is aztreonam lysine, an inhaled antibiotic for treatment of patients with cystic fibrosis. The company expects FDA approval in the third quarter.
Also in that quarter, Gilead expects U.S. marketing approval for Viread for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B in adults. Viread is used in the U.S. in combination with other antiviral agents for the treatment of HIV.
Gilead expects European Union marketing approval of Viread for treatment of hepatitis B in this year's second quarter.
Both aztreonam lysine and Viread for hepatitis B treatment present a market opportunity of several hundred million dollars on an annual basis, says Kantor. He says the company will benefit from those two drugs in 2009.
HIV Momentum
Gilead should continue to gain momentum from its HIV drug lineup.
"They have a very strong position in HIV treatment," said analyst Zhang. "I don't see that position changing anytime soon as it continues to grab more patients."
阅读本文的人还阅读：
作者:admin@医学,生命科学 2011-06-09 17:26
医学,生命科学网